Michael Notaro

Assistant Scientist
PhD, 2002, State Univ. of New York at Albany

Center for Climatic Research
1103 Atmospheric, Oceanic & Space Science Bldg.
1225 W. Dayton St.
Madison, Wisconsin 53706-1695

Phone: (608) 261-1503
Fax: (608) 263-4190
Email: mnotaro@wisc.edu


Education

Ph.D in Atmospheric Science, State University of New York at Albany, 1998-2002
M.S. in Atmospheric Science, State University of New York at Albany, 1995-1998
B.S. in Atmospheric Science, State University of New York at Albany, 1992-1995

Experience

Assistant Scientist, Center for Climatic Research, UW-Madison (2005-present)
Research Associate, Center for Climatic Research, UW-Madison (2002-2004)
Research Assistant, Atmospheric Sciences Research Center, SUNY-Albany (1995-2002)
Teaching Assistant, Dep't of Earth & Atmospheric Sciences, SUNY-Albany (1995,1997)

Research Interests

My interests within the field of atmospheric science are rather broad, spreading across synoptic meteorology, climatology, and climate change. As an undergraduate, I developed an interest in synoptic and dynamic meteorology, including the challenging art of weather forecasting. On three different occasions, I participated in a storm chase in the central United States, including the filming of three tornadoes around Spencer, South Dakota in May 1998. As a master's student, my areas of research included observed trends in North American cold surges and links to wintertime teleconnection patterns. My Ph.D. studies focused on the regional climate modeling of the winter climate in Northeast United States and more specifically, the relationship between the Pacific North American pattern / North Atlantic Oscillation and the regional winter climate in that region.

Beginning in October 2002, I began working as a research associate, or postdoc, at U.W. Madison's Center for Climatic Research. As of January 2005, I am now an assistant scientist at CCR. I primarily have been studying the interaction between climate and vegetation in a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean-vegetation model, FOAM-LPJ, and also in observations.

I have simulated the response of vegetation and climate to rising levels of CO2 during the pre-industrial to modern period and isolated the roles of the radiative versus physiological effect of rising CO2. I have also produced ensemble simulations of the potential future change in vegetation and climate due to continued rising levels of CO2, while isolating the role of vegetation feedbacks. Through specialized experiments with FOAM-LPJ, I have demonstrated that forest cover variability along the northern edge of the Asian boreal forest could potentially enhance SST variance over the Kuroshio Extension by over 30%, through a remote vegetation feedback across the atmospheric bridge. I have statistically quantified observed vegetation feedbacks and used this observational benchmark to evaluate simulated feedbacks in FOAM-LPJ and CCSM2.

I have produced ensemble experiments to dynamically assess vegetation feedbacks over the modern day Asian boreal forest or North Africa during the mid-Holocene in order to evaluate the statistical approach and understand the feedback mechanisms. Over North Africa, I am specifically investigating a negative feedback of grasslands on precipitation during the mid-Holocene in FOAM-LPJ and other models.

I am currently using offline LPJ and coupled models to explore the impact of future climate change, based on IPCC AR4 projections, on vegetation and fires in the Southwest United States. This project is funded by DOE NICCR. Their website is www.climate.nau.edu/index.html.

Selected Publications

Notaro, M., Y. Wang, Z. Liu, R. Gallimore, and S. Levis, 2007: Statistical and dynamical assessment of a simulated negative vegetation on North African precipitation during the mid-Holocene. Global Change Biology, in press.

Notaro, M., and Z. Liu, 2007: Joint statistical and dynamical assessment of simulated vegetation feedbacks on climate over the boreal forests. Climate Dynamics, in review.

Notaro, M., 2007: Statistical identification of global hotspots in soil moisture feedbacks among IPCC AR4 models. Journal of Geophysical Research, in review.

Notaro, M., 2007: Response of the mean global vegetation distribution to interannual climate variability. Climate Dynamics, in press.

Notaro, M., S. Vavrus, and Z. Liu, 2007: Global vegetation and climate change due to future increases in CO2 as projected by a fully coupled model with dynamic vegetation. J. Climate, 20, 70-90.

Notaro, M., and Z. Liu, 2007: Potential impact of the Eurasian boreal forest on North Pacific climate variability. J. Climate, 20, 981-992.

Liu, Z., Y. Wang, R. Gallimore, F. Gasse, T. Johnson, P. deMenocal, J. Adkins, M. Notaro, I. C. Prentice, J. Kutzbach, R. Jacob, P. Behling, L. Wang, and E. Ong, 2007: Simulating the transient evolution and abrupt change of North Africa atmosphere-ocean-terrestrial ecosystem in the Holocene. J. Quaternary Science, 26, 1818-1837.

Wang, Y., M. Notaro, Z. Liu, R. Gallimore, S. Levis, and J.E. Kutzbach, 2008: Detecting vegetation-precipitation feedbacks in mid-Holocene North Africa from two climate models. Clim. Past, 4, 59-67. CCR #922. Climate of the Past

Gallimore, R., S. Levis, and M. Notaro, 2007: Multi-decadal episodes of expanded vegetation in mid-Holocene North Africa: Results from two coupled global climate/vegetation models. Climate Dynamics, submitted.

Notaro, M., Z. Liu, and J. W. Williams, 2006: Observed vegetation-climate feedbacks in the United States. J. Climate, 19 (5), 763-786.

Notaro, M., W.-C. Wang, and W. Gong, 2006: Model and observational analysis of the Northeast’ regional winter climate and its relationship to the PNA pattern. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 3477-3503.

Booth, R. K., M. Notaro, S. T. Jackson, and J. E. Kutzbach, 2006: Widespread drought episodes in the western Great Lakes region during the past 2000 years: Geographic extent and potential mechanisms. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 242, 415-427.

Liu, Z., M. Notaro, J. Kutzbach, and N. Liu, 2006: An observational assessment of global vegetation-climate feedbacks. J. Climate, 19 (5), 787-814.

Vavrus, S., M. Notaro, and Z. Liu, 2006: A mechanism for abrupt climate change associated with tropical Pacific SSTs. J. Climate, 19 (2), 242-256.

Liu, Z., Y. Wang, R. Gallimore, M. Notaro, and I. C. Prentice, 2006: On the cause of abrupt vegetation collapse in North Africa during the Holocene: Climate variability vs. vegetation feedback. Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L22709, doi:10.1029/2006GL028062.

Notaro, M., Z. Liu, R. Gallimore, S. J. Vavrus, J. E. Kutzbach, I. C. Prentice, and R. L. Jacob, 2005: Simulated and observed pre-industrial to modern vegetation and climate changes. J. Climate, 18 (17), 3650-3671.

Wu, L., Z. Liu, R. Gallimore, M. Notaro, and R. Jacob, 2005: Modeling surgery: A new way toward understanding Earth climate variability. Journal of Ocean University of China, 10, 306-314.

Notaro, M., 2002: Model and observational analysis of the Northeast’ regional winter climate and its relationship to the PNA pattern. Ph.D. Dissertation, State University of New York at Albany.